We cant believe the first quarter of 2025 is in the books and with that said, here’s how things are shaping up for South Okanagan Real Estate. Thank you for reading.

Residential Sales for all property types in the South Okangan (excluding land sales) this March saw a increases by 25% and 139 units which is great to see. The South Okanagan Region had $88.5 Million dollars in sales volume, which is a 38% increase year over year according to the Association of Interior Realtors.  Inventory volumes were comparable with a small 1% increase and 1273 active listings giving a total of 9 months of inventory out there for those buyers out there looking.

The breakdown for the Single Family category in the South Okanagan saw more sales year over year which are up 50% at 69 properties.  Benchmark values were up by a modest 7% to $771,100, and inventory levels for single family homes came down year over year for the first time in many months according to the Real Estate Board by 5% with 511 listings.  Average days on market in this category increased by 14% at 72 days on market as shown above.

The Townhouse relm in the South Okanagan saw more sales year over year which are up 50% as well at 21 properties sold.  Benchmark values were up by a modest 6% to $529,100, and inventory levels came down for the first time in many months by 2% with 141 listings.  Average days on market in this category decreased by 23% at 81 days on market as shown above.

The Condo/Apartment category continues to be very saturated in the South Okanagan. We saw decreases in Sales of 17%, and increased inventory levels of 40% and 320 listings which is undoubtedly why Benchmark pricing dropped 4% year over year to $420,600. The average days on market for Apartment/Condos is 106 days.

As always we will continue to keep you all well informed on the ever changing market conditions and post them right here. Please dont hesitate to reach out if you have any questions about your buying/selling journey or need to know more about your properties value in todays market! 

Have a great April and Happy Easter to you all:)  

Jean and Shelly

Are you planning to sell your property this spring? Here are some tips for a successful spring sale.

• Price your home competitively — Research comparable properties in your area for what they listed and sold for and use these as a guide.

• Be prepared to negotiate on price and terms — Think about the lowest price that would be acceptable to you. • Give your home’s exterior some love — Expect potential buyers to examine the exterior more closely in the warmer months. Ensure your patio furniture is clean and wash the windows inside and outside if possible. For balconies, planters of colourful flowers go a long way. If you have a yard, clear any debris from the winter, consider putting down some fresh mulch, and tend to landscaping.

• Air out your home — Open the windows to let a cross-breeze through for fresh air. Also, consider placing some diffusers throughout your home for a pleasant scent.

• Stage seasonally — For example, since it’s springtime, setting out a vase of fresh tulips would be in tune with the season. Work with a professional stager.

• The entryway — This is your first opportunity to make a statement. Choose items that creates a lasting impression, such as a brand-new doormat, a nice framed mirror, a console and a matching bench. • Give your home a good spring clean — Depending on your region, winter can create a lot of extra dust from continuous heating. Consider hiring professional deep cleaners.

• Tend to any repairs — While this may seem obvious, depending on your region, winter can be rough on a home, so scan your home to see if you need to do any minor repairs or improvements.

• Declutter—Donate or sell anything that doesn’t have a practical or aesthetic purpose for a well-presented home.

Even if you aren’t preparing for a spring sale, many of these tips can be used to stay on top of home maintenance and keep your home humming into spring.

Hello All, 

Jean and Shelly here! We have been fielding some calls this week from some of our fantastic clients and thought we should send out some important updates on the most recent changes with BC housing and the notices many of you will recieve in the mail very soon, if not already!

Effective Jan. 1, 2024, the Province expanded the speculation and vacancy tax areas to 13 new communities and those residential property owners will need to declare for the first time in January 2025. Those NEW areas include:

• Vernon, Coldstream;

• Penticton, Summerland;

• Lake Country, Peachland;

• Courtenay, Comox, Cumberland;

• Parksville, Qualicum Beach;

• Salmon Arm; and

• Kamloops.

Residential property owners in these communities will need to declare for the first time in January 2025 based on how they used their property in 2024.

 ** Exemptions include primary residences, properties with a long-term tenant and life events, such as separation or divorce and please note that more than 99% of people living in B.C. are exempt from paying the tax.

Attached here is the quick link for you to easily declare from the comfort of your homes!  You will need the numbers sent to you on the notice handy, and your SIN number. 

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/speculation-vacancy-tax

We are grateful and do appreciate that you all know you can call us for assistance anytime, for things real estate related or not!   

Please dont hesitate to reach out if you are still needing some assistance with these notices and talk soon. 

 Best, 

Jean and Shelly

Activity gained momentum in the final quarter of 2024, resulting in moderate price gains and setting the stage for a brisk spring marketDespite economic and political uncertainty – both in Canada and south of the border – a revival of our national real estate market is underway thanks to lower interest rates, changes to mortgage lending rules, and renewed buyer demand. Strong activity through the final months of 2024 in most major regions from coast to coast resulted in moderate price gains, nationally. 

According to the Royal LePage® House Price Survey released today, the aggregate1 price of a home in Canada increased 3.8% year over year to $819,600 in the fourth quarter of 2024. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price remained essentially flat, rising a modest 0.5%. While activity began to flourish again in the final months of 2024, following sluggish demand in most major markets over the summer,  home price appreciation remained in check last quarter. 

“There are several converging factors revitalizing Canada’s real estate market and making home ownership more attainable,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Interest rates have fallen sharply in recent months, with further reductions expected in 2025. We believe the Bank of Canada could lower rates by another 100 basis points by year end, steadily improving affordability. At the same time, new mortgage rules are already helping younger Canadians by increasing borrowing power and reducing monthly carrying costs.

“While geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over the Trump administration’s proposed trade policies may weigh on consumer confidence, residential real estate remains largely insulated from such external pressures in the short term. Canada’s housing market is fundamentally driven by domestic factors. With strong full-time job growth, improving housing supply in key markets, and more accessible financing, we expect healthy activity levels to persist, even as broader economic challenges unfold,” said Soper.

When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.9% year over year to $855,900, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.5% year over year to $592,700. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, home prices remained virtually flat, with the median price of a single-family detached home increasing a modest 0.6%, and the median price of a condominium rising just 0.4%. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

What impact will a federal election have on the housing market?

An early federal election has become all but certain following the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the prorogation of government on January 6th. When the House of Commons resumes in late March, an immediate confidence vote is not expected to pass, triggering an election by mid-spring. The Liberal party is expected to select a new leader by March 9th.  

“With a federal election campaign at home and an aggressive stance on trade expected from the new U.S. administration, Canadians will be understandably nervous. That said, the critical need for housing in Canada transcends political cycles. The next government must prioritize addressing the supply crisis, which affects millions of Canadians seeking affordable shelter and stability for their families,” Soper commented. 

“For more than three decades, we’ve been underbuilding in Canada, a challenge worsened by the pandemic and our rapidly growing population. As we approach the federal election, housing access and affordability will undoubtedly be among the most pressing issues voters will demand candidates address.”

Revised mortgage policies and lower lending rates

New lending regulations came into effect at the end of 2024, aimed at improving accessibility for both first-time buyers and existing homeowners. Changes include the expansion of eligibility for 30-year amortizations on insured mortgages to all first-time homebuyers and all buyers of newly constructed homes, an increase from the previous 25-year maximum. Additionally, the mortgage insurance cap rose from $1 million to $1.5 million, enabling buyers who put less than 20 per cent down to consider higher-priced properties. This change is particularly significant in Canada’s most expensive real estate markets, where average home prices exceed $1 million. And, for those with mortgages renewing, the removal of the stress test requirement for uninsured borrowers switching lenders will allow Canadians greater choice and likely better rates, as banks will offer more competitive options in order to retain and attract clients.

“These regulatory changes mark a significant shift in improving access to home ownership for Canadians,” said Soper. “By expanding amortizations and raising the mortgage insurance cap, first-time buyers and those in high-priced markets will find it easier to purchase a home. Additionally, the removal of the stress test requirement for existing homeowners switching lenders will give Canadians greater choice and likely better rates, as financial institutions compete more aggressively to retain and attract clients.

“While extending the life of a mortgage may result in higher overall interest paid, the reduction in monthly carrying costs will help address one of the most immediate barriers to affordability. These new policies will make the dream of home ownership attainable for more Canadians,” he concluded.

Read Royal LePage’s fourth quarter release for national and regional insights. 

Fourth quarter press release highlights:

• Greater Montreal Area’s aggregate home price increased 8.2% year over year, while the greater Toronto and Vancouver markets recorded more modest gains of 2.3% and 0.7%, respectively. 

• For the third consecutive quarter, Quebec City recorded the highest year-over-year aggregate price increase (11.3%) in Q4 among the report’s major regions.

• Housing policy and affordability expected to be key ballot box issues shaping voters’ decisions in this year’s federal election.

• Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 6.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter in 2024.

https://www.royallepage.ca/en/realestate/news/rates-regulations-and-renewed-demand-driving-revival-of-canadas-real-estate-market-despite-economic-and-political-uncertainty/

We cant believe 2024 is over!  With that said December 2024 is in the books and here’s how things are shaping up for South Okanagan Real Estate currently. 

Residential Sales (all property types excluding land sales) this December 2024 saw an uptick in activity which is great to see and undoubtedly due to interest rate drops and price adjustments since August of 2023. The South Okanagan Region saw $46.1 Million dollars in sales for December, a 33% increase by logging 83 sales another increased value of 43% year over year.  Inventory is still higher than what we are used to seeing at over 10 months of inventory and 1045 active listings, which is a 9% increase as compared to this time last year.

The breakdown for Single Family Homes specifically in the South Okanagan saw increases in Sales as well by 18% and 33 units while we also saw a slight increase year over year in Benchmark values by 5% to $760,500. Inventory levels for single family homes grew 11% and the recorded days on market dropped by 26% as shown abouve.

In the townhouse relm, all categories saw increases. A modest .3% for benchmark prices at $499,900. 100% in sales easily by recording only 5 more sales than December of 2023 at 10 and a bigger leap by 20% in inventory at 103 active listings.

For the Condo/Apartment category, we saw increases in Sales(46%), Inventory(43%) and days on market(5%) with another 9% decrease in Benchmark Value year over year at $415,900 and most definately due to the amount of active listings in this specific category recorded now at 252 listings, putting downward pressure on pricing, so it’s nice to see more sales year over year recorded in this area the last few months.

We will watch closely and keep you all well informed on these ever changing figures and post them right here as always. Please dont hesitate to reach out if you have any questions about your buying/selling journey or need to know more about your properties value in todays market! 

Have a great January and Happy New Year to you all!

Jean and Shelly

We cant believe 2024 is near over!  With that said November 2024 is in the books and here’s how things are shaping up for South Okanagan Real Estate. 

Residential Sales (all property types) this November 2024 saw an uptick in activity which is great to see and undoubtedly due to interest rate drops and price adjustments since August of 2023. The South Okanagan Region saw $68.4 Million in November in 121 sales which is an increase of 61.3% year over year.  Inventory is still higher than what we are used to seeing at 10 months of inventory and 1192 active listings. (Image below)

Single Family Homes in the South Okanagan saw increases in Sales as well, by an outsanding 74% and 54 units while we had slight decreases in Benchmark values and Days on market at 8%. (Image Below)

Townhouse properties in the South Okanagan saw increases in Sales(75%), Inventory(5%) and Days on market(25%) and decreases in Benchmark Value at 3%. (Image Below)

Similarily to the townhouse stats, Condo and Aprtments in the South Okanagan also saw increases in Sales(57%), Inventory(43%) and Days on market(134%) with a decrease in Benchmark Value at 9%.

With some of the recent interest rate changes, buyers are back and feeling far more comfortable again which will absolutely create both upward presure on home values and bring inventory levels down.  We will keep you all posted right here in our blog and as always, dont hesitate to reach out if you have any questions about your buying/selling journey or need to know more about your properties value in todays market!

Jean and Shelly

No matter the time of year, there is always something happening in Penticton. Home to over 30 annual major events and festivals, there is a variety to experience from cultural showcase, world-class sporting events, beer and wine festivals, live entertainment, seasonal fairs and markets, and so much more. Check out the events this December in the link below.

https://www.visitpenticton.com/event/

For the second time in a row, Canada’s central bank has cut its overnight lending rate. 

In its pre-scheduled July 2024 announcement, the Bank of Canada dropped the target for the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. 

While inflation remains above the Bank’s 2% target, it is expected that inflation will continue to ease as the global economy expands into 2026, bolstering the Bank’s decision to continue lowering rates. 

In his opening remarks to reporters at a press conference following the announcement, Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, cited that the risk that inflation continues to grow must be balanced against the risk that the economy and inflation could weaken.

“Looking ahead, we expect inflation to moderate further, though progress over the next year will likely be uneven. This forecast reflects the opposing forces affecting inflation. The overall weakness in the economy is pulling inflation down. At the same time, price pressures in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up,” said Macklem. “We are increasingly confident that the ingredients to bring inflation back to target are in place. But the push-pull of these opposing forces means the decline in inflation will likely be gradual, and there could be setbacks along the way.”

What does a second rate cut mean for homebuyers?

Despite the highly-anticipated rate cut made in June — the first drop to the overnight lending rate in four years — the slight decrease to lending rates last month did not encourage as many homebuyers back to the market as expected. However, with a second consecutive rate cut now in the books, a 50 basis-point-drop to lending rates may coax more homeowner hopefuls to reignite their purchase plans. 

According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Leger,1 51% of Canadians who put their home buying plans on hold the last two years said they would return to the market when the Bank of Canada reduced its key lending rate. Eighteen percent said they would wait for a cut of 50 to 100 basis points, and 23% said they’d need to see a cut of more than 100 basis points before considering resuming their search.

“Our research shows that many buyer hopefuls have been waiting for a concrete signal from the Bank of Canada that the economy is moving in the right direction. A second cut to the overnight lending rate indicates just that, and with mortgage qualification thresholds continuing to come down, sidelined buyers may have the confidence they need to make their return to the housing market,” said Karen Yolevski, COO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. 

“We expect this will prompt a slight boost in activity in the short-term, followed by more robust buyer demand in the fall. In the meantime, some much-needed inventory has been building in major markets over the last few months, giving buyers more options to choose from. In addition to lower rates, this may also encourage more buyers to re-enter the market in the near future.”

The Bank of Canada will make its next announcement on Wednesday, September 4th. 

Read the full July 24th report here.

Nationally, home prices increased 1.5% on a quarterly basis in Q2 despite activity slowdown in major markets

Despite a strong first quarter for sales, Canada’s spring housing market was muted in many regions across the country in Q2 of 2024. Although the first cut to the overnight lending rate by the Bank of Canada in June generated much buzz among Canadians, the long-awaited drop did not translate into a noticeable return of homebuyers to the market. This hesitant approach from purchasers contrasts against rising inventory levels, which has resulted in more balanced market conditions as of late. 

Royal LePage® is forecasting that the aggregate1 price of a home in Canada will increase 9.0% in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. Nationally, home prices are forecast to see continued moderate price appreciation throughout the second half of the year.

“Canada’s housing market is struggling to find a consistent rhythm, as the last three months clearly demonstrated,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Nationally, home prices rose while the number of properties bought and sold sagged; an unusual dynamic. The silver lining: inventory levels in many regions have climbed materially. This is the closest we’ve been to a balanced market in several years.

“This trend dominates activity in two of the country’s largest and most expensive markets, the greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver, where sales are down yet prices remain sticky,” Soper continued. “There are exceptions. In the prairie provinces and Quebec, low supply and tight competition persist.”

Q2 reports modest uptick in home prices

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 1.9% year over year to $824,300 in the second quarter of 2024. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price increased 1.5%, despite a slowdown in activity in the country’s most expensive markets. 

When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.2% year over year to $860,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.6% year over year to $596,500. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.8%, while the median price of a condominium increased 0.8%. 

Sustained high interest rates run risk of buyer rush

For the last two years, the national housing market has seen home prices fluctuate between modest declines and increases – with some regional exceptions – as a result of the impacts of higher interest rates. As the Bank of Canada cautiously navigates the delicate balance between lowering the key lending rate and keeping inflation in check, some segments of Canada’s housing market have stalled.

“Canada’s housing market faces pent-up demand after two stifling years of high borrowing costs. While inflation control is crucial, persistently high rates are increasing the risk of a surge in demand when buyers inevitably return. New household formation and immigration keep fueling the need for housing, and a sudden release could create much market instability. This highlights the need for a more nuanced approach that balances inflation control with economic vitality,” added Soper. 

Increased borrowing costs hamper new supply creation

Elevated borrowing rates are not only dampening housing market activity but also stifling the construction of new homes. Builders, who rely heavily on lending, are finding it increasingly difficult to finance new projects, exacerbating the country’s shortage of housing at a time when our population continues to grow.

“Canada’s housing market faces complex challenges. While raising interest rates was crucial to fighting inflation, it has unintentionally choked off the essential flow of new housing supply. Higher borrowing costs, coupled with labour shortages in the construction trades and rising material prices, have made it economically unsustainable for developers to launch new projects. This creates a perfect storm – our population is growing steadily, yet we’re building far fewer homes than what’s needed to meet that demand. This situation urgently needs innovative solutions to ensure Canadians have access to affordable housing options,” concluded Soper.

Read Royal LePage’s second quarter release for national and regional insights. 

Second quarter press release highlights:

• Toronto and Vancouver report slower-than-usual market activity this spring as inventory builds, while demand continues to outpace supply in prairie provinces and Quebec  

• Quebec City records highest year-over-year aggregate price increase (10.4%) in Q2 among report’s major regions

• Royal LePage maintains national year-end forecast with prices expected to increase 9.0% in Q4 2024 over the same period last year 

• According to a Royal LePage survey, conducted by Leger2 earlier this year, 51% of sidelined homebuyers said they would resume their search if interest rates reversed

Despite rising inventory levels, many of Canada’s homebuyers have remained on the sidelines this spring, resulting in more balanced, less feverish market conditions this past month.

According to the latest market report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales across Canadian MLS Systems dropped 1.7% month-over-month in April, 2024. Actual monthly activity came in 10.1% above the same month last year.

At the same time, the number of newly listed homes increased 2.8% month-over-month in April, 2024. With slower sales and more new listings, the total number of homes on the market jumped by 6.5%, hitting its highest level since just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This was one of the biggest monthly increases ever recorded, second only to the mass slowdown the market experienced in early 2022.

“After a long hibernation, the spring market is now officially underway. The increase in listings is resulting in the most balanced market conditions we’ve seen at the national level since before the pandemic,” said James Mabey, Chair of CREA’s 2024-2025 Board of Directors, in the monthly report. “Mortgage rates are still high, and it remains difficult for a lot of people to break into the market but, for those who can, it’s the first spring market in some time where they can shop around, take their time and exercise some bargaining power. Given how much demand is out there, it’s hard to say how long it will last.”

With sales down and new listings up in April, the national sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 53.4%, just below the long-term average of 55%. By the end of April, there were 4.2 months of inventory nationwide, up from 3.9 months at the end of March, the highest level since the pandemic began and above the long-term average of five months.

“April 2023 was characterized by a surge of buyers re-entering a market with new listings at 20-year lows, whereas this spring thus far has been the opposite, with a healthier number of properties to choose from but less enthusiasm on the demand side,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.

The actual national average home price was $703,446 in April of 2024, down 1.8% from the same month last year. The National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was unchanged from March to April, marking the third month of stable prices. Regionally, prices are mostly flat across the country, except in Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon, where they’ve been steadily rising since the beginning of last year.

With a new year now underway, Canadians can expect to see a variety of changes coming to federal, provincial and local government housing legislation in 2024. 

From updated taxes to revised urban planning regulations, new housing laws and policies will roll out across the country in the coming months. Several of these policies promise to boost much-needed housing supply, which remains at a critical shortage in both the resale and rental segments.  

Here are the new housing policies that you should know about in 2024. 

Federal Policies

Short-term Rental Restrictions

In November, 2023, the Government of Canada unveiled its 2023 Fall Economic Statement, which details new tax, spending and inventory-boosting measures. This includes new efforts to incentivise short-term rental operators to return properties to the long-term housing market. Going forward, income tax deductions will be denied in cases where short-term rental owners are not compliant with provincial or municipal licensing, permitting or registration requirements. This applies to all expenses incurred on or after January 1st, 2024.

You can read more details from the 2023 Fall Economic Statement here. 

Pre-approved Home Design Catalogue

To boost construction of new home supply, the federal government intends to revive a post-Second World War housing policy of standardized, pre-approved home designs, making it easier and faster for developers to build new properties. The modern version of the catalogue will focus on creating blueprints for a variety of low-rise housing, and potentially higher-density homes and different forms of building construction, such as modular and prefabricated homes. 

Consultations for the home catalogue are expected to start in January, 2024.

British Columbia 

New Short-term Rental Housing By-laws

In late 2023, the provincial government introduced the Short-Term Rental Accommodations Act which imposes stricter regulations and enforcement on short-term rental housing. As of May 1st, 2024, the Act will require short-term rental hosts to display a valid business licence number on their listing in regions where a licence is required by the local government. Short-term rentals will be limited to the host’s principal residence, plus one secondary suite or accessory dwelling unit, in select communities. 

Additionally, protections for ‘non-conforming use of property’ will no longer apply to short-term rentals. Later in the year, the British Columbia government will implement a short-term rental registry, and require rental platforms to share data with the Province. 

Expanded Speculation and Vacancy Tax

The province has expanded its existing speculation and vacancy tax laws to 13 new communities, including Penticton, Courtenay and Kamloops. Homeowners in applicable regions will be required to declare how they used their property in 2024 for the first time in January, 2025. 

Introduced in 2018, the speculation and vacancy tax is 2% for individuals who don’t pay the majority of their taxes in Canada, or 0.5% for Canadian citizens or permanent residents who pay the majority of their taxes in the country. 

Updated Zoning Rules

New zoning laws are under consideration to deliver more small-scale, multi-unit housing across British Columbia. Under the proposed legislation, one secondary suite or one laneway home will be permitted in all communities throughout the province. In most areas within municipalities of more than 5,000 people, by-laws will also be adapted to allow three to four units on lots currently zoned exclusively for single-family or duplex residential, and permit six units on larger lots close to transit stops with frequent service.

Additionally, the new zoning rules would require municipalities to update community plans and zoning by-laws on a regular basis to ensure that there is enough housing for current and future residents. Changes to zoning by-laws will roll out across 2024. 

Alberta

Interest on Security Deposits

Alberta landlords will be required to pay annual interest on security deposits they receive from their tenants. Effective January 1st, 2024, the interest rate payable on security deposits will be set at 1.6% under the Residential Tenancies Act and Mobile Home Sites Tenancies Act. Previously, security deposits did not incur interest. 

Toronto

New Luxury Home Tax

Effective January 1st, 2024, the City of Toronto will enforce graduated Municipal Land Transfer Tax thresholds for high value residential properties. Previously, homes valued at $2 million or more would be subject to a MLTT rate, which is currently set at 2.5%. Going forward, additional thresholds have been established for homes priced between $3 million and $20 million, with the new rates set incrementally higher based on the value of the home. 

Legalization of Rooming Houses

Otherwise known as multi-tenant homes, rooming houses will become legal in the City of Toronto starting March 31st, 2024, along with new regulations. Previously, rooming houses were not legal in some areas of the city. Under the new framework, Toronto rooming houses will be limited to a maximum number of rooms and parking, licensing requirements, and will be required to follow a compliance program. A multi-tenant house is defined as a building with four or more rooms that may have a shared washroom and kitchen.

Increase in Vacant Home Tax Rates 

In 2023, Toronto introduced its first ever Vacant Home Tax (VHT), which requires homeowners to declare the occupancy status of their residence to the municipality each year. The VHT was implemented to increase housing supply in Toronto by encouraging the conversion of empty properties into occupied homes.

The VHT has been increased from 1% to 3% for the 2024 taxation year, which will become payable in 2025.

Fourth quarter highlights: 

• National aggregate home price increased 4.3% year over year in Q4 2023; decreased 1.7% quarter over quarter

• Aggregate home price in greater regions of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver posted gains of 5.1%, 4.1% and 2.7% year over year, respectively, in final quarter of 2023

• Among report’s major regions, Calgary recorded highest year over year price appreciation (10.7%); only major region to post quarterly price gains in Q4 2023 (1.5% over Q3)

• 81% of regional markets posted a quarter-over-quarter decline

• Approximately 2.2 million mortgages in Canada will be renewing over the next two years, most at a much higher interest rate

• National aggregate home price expected to rise 5.5% year over year in Q4 of 2024

Interest rates and mortgage renewals

In December, the Bank of Canada once again held its key lending rate steady at 5.0 per cent.[3] The central bank has indicated that it has likely concluded its interest rate increase campaign, and it is widely expected to make modest cuts later this year. Meanwhile, several major financial institutions have already begun offering discounts on fixed-rate mortgages as bond yields decline.

“The Bank of Canada governing council will soon face the difficult task of trying to balance the lowering of interest rates without simultaneously stimulating spending, which would cause inflation to rise again,” said Soper.

In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis, matching the increase in October.[4] If mortgage interest costs are taken out of the CPI calculation, inflation sits at 2.2 per cent, close to the Bank of Canada’s target rate.[5]

“In Canada, we purchase homes with short-term mortgages of five years or less, in contrast to the situation in the U.S. where much longer 30-year terms are the norm. In a typical year, 25 per cent of our mortgages turn over. Consequently, during the period from 2023 to 2025, most homeowners in Canada will have transitioned to higher mid-single-digit borrowing. We will be required to adapt quickly, positioning our industry on a path to recovery more quickly than in the U.S. where the prospect of losing a below-market rate will act as a deterrent to moving.”

In 2024 and 2025, nearly half (45%) of all outstanding mortgages in the country will be up for renewal, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).[6] That’s about 2.2 million households that will be renewing their mortgages, most at a much higher rate.

“Similar to what we witnessed last spring, when the Bank of Canada paused rates for the first time in a year causing sales activity and prices to increase almost immediately, the first sign of rate cuts – even if only by 25 basis points – could create a flurry of activity in the real estate market,  releasing pent-up demand. Those who have been holding off listing their homes will follow close behind.”

Forecast

In December, Royal LePage issued its 2024 Market Survey Forecast, projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 5.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Nationally, home prices are forecast to see modest quarterly gains in the first six months of 2024, with more considerable increases expected in the second half of the year, due to a boost in activity following a widely anticipated series of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.

Royal LePage’s forecast is based on the prediction that the Bank of Canada has concluded its interest rate hike campaign and that the key lending rate will hold steady at five per cent through the first part of 2024.

Greater Vancouver 

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver increased 2.7 per cent to $1,220,100 year over year in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region remained relatively flat, decreasing by 0.7 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 5.4 per cent year over year to $1,731,900 in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.2 per cent to $762,600 during the same period.

“The last few months of 2023 concluded much as expected: a generally quiet period but not without some last-minute transactions being completed before the end of the year. Overall, sales activity and prices in the fourth quarter were consistent with the fall, and despite the typical seasonal slowdown, home prices in Greater Vancouver have remained stable,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “There remains a significant amount of pent-up demand from homebuyers waiting to return to the marketplace. It’s simply a question of when, a factor that hinges on the trajectory of lending rates.”

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home increased 3.4 per cent year over year to $1,391,700 in the fourth quarter of 2023. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 8.1 per cent to $2,244,200, while the median price of a condominium increased 5.5 per cent to $827,900.

“Looking ahead, we could see a brisk spring market, especially if fixed-rate loans continue to trend downward. This will spur significant activity,” noted Ryalls. “If we see the Bank of Canada begin to cut interest rates early in the year, competition among buyers could heat up quickly.”

Ryalls added that a significant boost in inventory will be needed to meet the demands of buyers coming off the sidelines.

In December, Royal LePage issued a forecast projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase 3.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023.

[1] Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.

[2] Canadian Real Estate Association

[3] Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening, December 6, 2023

[4] Consumer Price Index, November 2023, December 19, 2023

[5] Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, percentage change, not seasonally adjusted, Canada, provinces, Whitehorse, Yellowknife and Iqaluit, December 19, 2023

[6] Rising rates on homeowners and the shocks that lie ahead, November 9, 2023

[7]  Centris, Active listings for the month of December, from 2014 to 2023, Montreal Metropolitan Area.