For the second time in a row, Canada’s central bank has cut its overnight lending rate. 

In its pre-scheduled July 2024 announcement, the Bank of Canada dropped the target for the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. 

While inflation remains above the Bank’s 2% target, it is expected that inflation will continue to ease as the global economy expands into 2026, bolstering the Bank’s decision to continue lowering rates. 

In his opening remarks to reporters at a press conference following the announcement, Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, cited that the risk that inflation continues to grow must be balanced against the risk that the economy and inflation could weaken.

“Looking ahead, we expect inflation to moderate further, though progress over the next year will likely be uneven. This forecast reflects the opposing forces affecting inflation. The overall weakness in the economy is pulling inflation down. At the same time, price pressures in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up,” said Macklem. “We are increasingly confident that the ingredients to bring inflation back to target are in place. But the push-pull of these opposing forces means the decline in inflation will likely be gradual, and there could be setbacks along the way.”

What does a second rate cut mean for homebuyers?

Despite the highly-anticipated rate cut made in June — the first drop to the overnight lending rate in four years — the slight decrease to lending rates last month did not encourage as many homebuyers back to the market as expected. However, with a second consecutive rate cut now in the books, a 50 basis-point-drop to lending rates may coax more homeowner hopefuls to reignite their purchase plans. 

According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Leger,1 51% of Canadians who put their home buying plans on hold the last two years said they would return to the market when the Bank of Canada reduced its key lending rate. Eighteen percent said they would wait for a cut of 50 to 100 basis points, and 23% said they’d need to see a cut of more than 100 basis points before considering resuming their search.

“Our research shows that many buyer hopefuls have been waiting for a concrete signal from the Bank of Canada that the economy is moving in the right direction. A second cut to the overnight lending rate indicates just that, and with mortgage qualification thresholds continuing to come down, sidelined buyers may have the confidence they need to make their return to the housing market,” said Karen Yolevski, COO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. 

“We expect this will prompt a slight boost in activity in the short-term, followed by more robust buyer demand in the fall. In the meantime, some much-needed inventory has been building in major markets over the last few months, giving buyers more options to choose from. In addition to lower rates, this may also encourage more buyers to re-enter the market in the near future.”

The Bank of Canada will make its next announcement on Wednesday, September 4th. 

Read the full July 24th report here.

Nationally, home prices increased 1.5% on a quarterly basis in Q2 despite activity slowdown in major markets

Despite a strong first quarter for sales, Canada’s spring housing market was muted in many regions across the country in Q2 of 2024. Although the first cut to the overnight lending rate by the Bank of Canada in June generated much buzz among Canadians, the long-awaited drop did not translate into a noticeable return of homebuyers to the market. This hesitant approach from purchasers contrasts against rising inventory levels, which has resulted in more balanced market conditions as of late. 

Royal LePage® is forecasting that the aggregate1 price of a home in Canada will increase 9.0% in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. Nationally, home prices are forecast to see continued moderate price appreciation throughout the second half of the year.

“Canada’s housing market is struggling to find a consistent rhythm, as the last three months clearly demonstrated,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Nationally, home prices rose while the number of properties bought and sold sagged; an unusual dynamic. The silver lining: inventory levels in many regions have climbed materially. This is the closest we’ve been to a balanced market in several years.

“This trend dominates activity in two of the country’s largest and most expensive markets, the greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver, where sales are down yet prices remain sticky,” Soper continued. “There are exceptions. In the prairie provinces and Quebec, low supply and tight competition persist.”

Q2 reports modest uptick in home prices

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 1.9% year over year to $824,300 in the second quarter of 2024. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price increased 1.5%, despite a slowdown in activity in the country’s most expensive markets. 

When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.2% year over year to $860,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.6% year over year to $596,500. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.8%, while the median price of a condominium increased 0.8%. 

Sustained high interest rates run risk of buyer rush

For the last two years, the national housing market has seen home prices fluctuate between modest declines and increases – with some regional exceptions – as a result of the impacts of higher interest rates. As the Bank of Canada cautiously navigates the delicate balance between lowering the key lending rate and keeping inflation in check, some segments of Canada’s housing market have stalled.

“Canada’s housing market faces pent-up demand after two stifling years of high borrowing costs. While inflation control is crucial, persistently high rates are increasing the risk of a surge in demand when buyers inevitably return. New household formation and immigration keep fueling the need for housing, and a sudden release could create much market instability. This highlights the need for a more nuanced approach that balances inflation control with economic vitality,” added Soper. 

Increased borrowing costs hamper new supply creation

Elevated borrowing rates are not only dampening housing market activity but also stifling the construction of new homes. Builders, who rely heavily on lending, are finding it increasingly difficult to finance new projects, exacerbating the country’s shortage of housing at a time when our population continues to grow.

“Canada’s housing market faces complex challenges. While raising interest rates was crucial to fighting inflation, it has unintentionally choked off the essential flow of new housing supply. Higher borrowing costs, coupled with labour shortages in the construction trades and rising material prices, have made it economically unsustainable for developers to launch new projects. This creates a perfect storm – our population is growing steadily, yet we’re building far fewer homes than what’s needed to meet that demand. This situation urgently needs innovative solutions to ensure Canadians have access to affordable housing options,” concluded Soper.

Read Royal LePage’s second quarter release for national and regional insights. 

Second quarter press release highlights:

• Toronto and Vancouver report slower-than-usual market activity this spring as inventory builds, while demand continues to outpace supply in prairie provinces and Quebec  

• Quebec City records highest year-over-year aggregate price increase (10.4%) in Q2 among report’s major regions

• Royal LePage maintains national year-end forecast with prices expected to increase 9.0% in Q4 2024 over the same period last year 

• According to a Royal LePage survey, conducted by Leger2 earlier this year, 51% of sidelined homebuyers said they would resume their search if interest rates reversed